World worries about peace

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The political conditions for the cease fire in Donbas (that had been proclaimed on Sunday) are still unfavourable. The parties to conflict can’t agree on an array of local and global issues, including the situation at Debaltsevo and the status of the self-proclaimed republics.

Ertugrul Apakan, the Head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation mission informed on Sunday at 5 p.m. that during the recent 12 hours the cease-fire was observed by the Ukrainian government and militia groups of the self-proclaimed republics.

According to him, the exceptions are Deblatsevo and the city of Luhansk. Vladislav Seleznyov, acting for the Joint Staff Head, confirms that in general the peace in Ukraine is kept.

Earlier the both parties to conflict blamed each other on the peace-breaking. Eduard Basurin, the Vice President of the Ministry of Defence (the Donetsk People’s Republic) blamed the Ukrainian government on shooting at Debaltsevo. The Ukrainian military men stated that sporadic attacks were executed by militia men.

It’s worth saying that Vladimir Putin straight after the negotiations in Minsk claimed that the situation at Debaltsevo was crucial, as according to his opinion “it’s logical that those who are inside the blockade will try to escape, and those who are outside will try to create a window to withdraw the military forces, thus, weapon employment is inevitable”.

As a German magazine Der Spiegel says it was the situation at Debaltsevo that made Angela Merkel and François Hollande take activate diplomatic efforts to resolve the Eastern Ukrainian conflict.

“The separatist leaders together with Putin understand that the West won’t interfere into the bloodshed to prevent the Ukrainian splitting and Merkel’s influence is limited,” Der Spiegel magazine admits.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, wants the Ukrainian armed forces to leave the conflict zone without arms and equipment. But he hasn’t received the feedback yet.

G-7 countries, having approved the document signed in Minsk, stated they would take actions if the partied didn’t follow the agreement. They mean a huge set of economic sanctions as a punishment.

Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council and Dalia Grybauskaite, the President of Lithuania, spoke up tough before the cease-fire decision. In particular, Tusk stated the European leaders should be “cautious” about any agreements, because according to him they were probably to be broken. The Lithuanian President, in her turn, highlighted that Ukraine’s failure to control the Russian-Ukrainian border put Kyiv into an unfortunate position.

Earlier the Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk expressed his confidence telling that Russia would delay the process of returning to Ukraine the district controlled by the separatists.

Niall Ferguson, a Financial Times columnist, believes that the Minsk agreement makes Russia be on the loosing side, as according to the new document Ukraine should regain control over the border only at the end of 2015 and the September agreement says it should happen without any delay.

Russia, in its turn makes it understand that it has no a desire to be the only side that takes responsibility for the Minsk agreements. On Saturday Sergey Kislyak, the Russian Ambassador to the USA, considered that stance to be populist.

In the Russian TV program “Vesti v subboty” (“Saturday News”) Kislyak reminded that the first Minsk agreements (on a dialogue about the Ukrainian constitutional reform, taking into account the opinions of all the parties concerned and on the cease-fire) were not kept by Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a statement on its official site where it confirmed the “success” of the Minsk agreements. However, the Ministry also published the following: “Taking into account the announcements made by the Donetsk’s and Luhansk’s representatives, where they agree to meet all the responsibilities, a number of Kyiv’s statements make us worry”.

It should be mentioned that the future of the self-proclaimed republics (the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic) is vague.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the Head of the DPR, claimed that he would not permit any Ukrainian political party to take part in the local elections in Donbas. “They are castigators,” he said. And his speech was a response to some distinguished Ukrainian officials’ statements about the necessity of the constitutional reform (clause 11 of the Minsk document).

Vladimir Groysman, a spokesman of the Verkhovna Rada sated that in the course of the October local elections Kyiv wouldn’t “create some special rules for Donetsk and Luhansk. And the issue is not about the country’s federalization or any Ukrainian districts’ autonomy,” he added. It’s evident neither of the parties to conflict agrees with the other party’s conditions, it means that there’s a problem in Donbas’s reunification and it may beget a conflict at any moment.

The future of the self-proclaimed republics is vague. And today the Ukrainian Prime Minister suggested via twitter raising a question about “Russian reparations”.

Moscow can’t be satisfied with such a statement, which will be the reason for another diplomatic problem with unpredictable military and political results.

On Sunday evening the Norman four discussed the situation at Debaltsevo, in particular “the necessity of the OSCE’s monitoring mission there”. The telephone negotiations will continue on Monday (February 16).

Text and pictures by GAZETA.RU